every score comes from expected value, basically how much a promo pays you back on average for each dollar you run through it. here is the actual math i use, nothing hidden. back to promotions
a promo is worth whatever it pays you minus what it costs to unlock. i turn that into a percentage of the money you put in.
the cost to unlock is just the book's margin (the vig) on any betting it makes you do, usually somewhere around 3 to 5% of what you have to wager. everything below is that same idea for one type of promo. when i need a real probability i pull it straight from the price with the vig stripped out, p = 1 / fair odds.
a boost is good whenever the boosted price beats the fair one. say fair is 2.00 (p = 0.50) and they bump it to 2.40, that is 0.50 × 2.40 − 1 = +20% on the bet. free money if you were taking that side anyway.
F is the free bet amount, c is what a free bet is actually worth in cash (about 0.7, since you don't get the stake back), T is how much you have to bet, v is the vig on those bets. these are the best ones going. a $500-in for $250-free deal is roughly 250 × 0.7 − 500 × 0.04, so about +$155 on $500, call it +30%.
the book pays you in the extra spots where you would normally lose, like your team goes 2 up then draws. no downside, and it just happens on every qualifying bet, so i rate these higher than the small per-bet number makes them look.
R is whatever gets refunded (bore draw, split decision, final-set tiebreak, walk-off, late loss). you can't lose anything extra, the trigger just decides how often you collect. more common trigger, more EV.
some of your losses come back. no timing, no mechanic to catch, just reliable.
for a normal bettor your slice of the pool is tiny, so i weigh the pool against the field and how many spots pay. nice if you were already betting, rarely worth grinding volume for.
stuff like stake shield is priced about fairly, you give up payout for protection so the EV lands near zero. pure features like streams, extra markets, xp and same-game-multi builders don't pay anything, so they sit around 4.
i map the EV to a number, then bump it a little for how easy it is to actually get.
| +20% and up | 9 – 10 | basically free money |
| +8% to +20% | 8 | strong edge on the bet |
| +4% to +8% | 7 | solid, dependable value |
| +2% to +4% | 6 | worth taking |
| +0.5% to +2% | 5 | pretty marginal |
| around 0% | 4 | a feature, not value |
bumps up if it applies to every bet with no cap and no downside. bumps down if it is capped, one-off, needs an opt-in, or you have to bet a ton to see any of it.
these are estimates, not promises. i am approximating the true odds from the market and your actual results depend on what you bet and how. not financial advice. promos change and expire so always read the book's terms.